Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).
Open Access
GRINS THEMATIC AREAS
RESEARCH LINES
This policy brief proposes a structured approach to mitigating meteorological drought risks in regions of central Italy using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). It is suggested that by leveraging advanced forecasting models, such as the Vector Autoregressive with Dynamic Conditional Correlations (VAR-DCC-GARCH) model, it is possible to enhance early warning systems for central Italian regions and improve water resource management. The suggested strategy emphasizes proactive monitoring, stakeholder coordination, and adaptive response measures to build resilience against the increasing frequency of droughts.
A technical Working Paper with extensive explanations of methodology, data, and empirical results (part of which are summarized below) will be also available on Amelia, including the Matlab code used to produce and automate SPI forecasting.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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