The interdiction of the Suez Canal due to attacks by the Houthi armed group off the Strait of Bad El-Mandab in the Southern Red Sea and the consequent reorganisation of transport, which was rerouted to the Cape of Good Hope, are explored in this contribution. The methodology presented, commonly used for the analysis of business processes, is adapted in an instrumental way, in order to elaborate a scenario analysis on three different time levels: the pre-crisis situation, the current state and finally future perspectives. The results highlight the fragility of an integrated transport system on a global scale, which has a spill-over effect both on the organisation of transport flows and on the various strategic nodes. Moreover, the current crisis which is affecting the Suez Canal and more generally the Middle East Region confirms the importance that geopolitical turmoil is playing, and it is expected to play in the near future in the reorganisation of transport flows both at global and regional scales.