Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



Open Access
GRINS THEMATIC AREAS
RESOURCES
A new integer-valued autoregressive process (INAR) with Generalised Lagrangian Katz (GLK) innovations is defined. This process family provides a flexible modeling framework for count data, allowing for under and over-dispersion, asymmetry, and excess of kurtosis. It also includes standard INAR models such as Generalized Poisson and Negative Binomial as special cases. It is shown that the GLK–INAR process is discrete semi-self-decomposable, infinite divisible, stable by aggregation and stationarity conditions are provided. Some extensions are discussed, such as the Markov-Switching and the zero-inflated GLK–INARs. A Bayesian inference framework and an efficient posterior approximation procedure are introduced. The proposed models are applied to 130 time series from Google Trend, which proxy the worldwide public concern about climate change. New evidence is found of heterogeneity across time, countries and keywords in the persistence, uncertainty, and long-run public awareness level.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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