Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).
Open Access
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This paper aims to analyze the relationship between the net price of different fuels in the Italian market and European Union emission allowances during Phase 2, 3, and part of Phase 4 (2008–2023), with each energy price considered as the dependent variable. Considering the Emission Trading System as a peculiar European tax regime, the empirical findings show the presence of a cointegrating relationship between the price of the allowances and energy prices, which reveals a shifting of the tax burden from firm to final consumer. To achieve this objective, the CCR (Canonical Cointegration Regression) has been estimated for the variables showing cointegration with the Emission Trading System allowances, as determined by the results of the Gregory-Hansen test. Time-Varying Granger Causality tests reveal that EU emission allowances Granger cause all the dependent variables, at least a 5 % significance level.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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