Fondazione GRINS
Growing Resilient,
Inclusive and Sustainable
Galleria Ugo Bassi 1, 40121, Bologna, IT
C.F/P.IVA 91451720378
Finanziato dal Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza (PNRR), Missione 4 (Infrastruttura e ricerca), Componente 2 (Dalla Ricerca all’Impresa), Investimento 1.3 (Partnership Estese), Tematica 9 (Sostenibilità economica e finanziaria di sistemi e territori).



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Multiverse Analysis is a heuristic for robust multiple models estimation where data fit many connected specifications of the same abstract model, instead of a singular or a small selection of specifications. Differently from the canonical application of multimodels, in Multiverse Analysis the probabilities of the specifications to be included in the analysis are never assumed independent of each other.
Grounded in this consideration, this study provides a compact statistical characterisation of the process of elicitation of the specifications in Multiverse Analysis and conceptually adjacent methods, connecting previous insights from meta-analytical Statistics, model averaging, Network Theory, Information Theory, and Causal Inference.
The calibration of the multiversal estimates is treated with references to the adoption of Bayesian Model Averaging vs. alternatives. In the applications, it is checked the theory that Bayesian Model Averaging reduces both error and uncertainty for well-specified multiversal models but amplifies errors when a collider variable is included in the multiversal model. In well-specified models, alternatives do not perform better than Uniform weighting of the estimates, so the adoption of a gold standard remains ambiguous. Normative implications for misinterpretation of Multiverse Analysis and future directions of research are discussed.
AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was funded by the European Union - NextGenerationEU, in the framework of the GRINS - Growing Resilient, INclusive and Sustainable project (GRINS PE00000018). The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Union, nor can the European Union be held responsible for them.
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